Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
