Keir Starmer's Supporters Begin 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Block Mayor's Commons Return

Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to the House of Commons. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.

Major Hurdles in the Selection Process

Multiple figures on the party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are keen to avert any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have swung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Internal Disquiet

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would only re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions occupy a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a strong campaign, capitalising on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.

The departing MP stated he was resigning due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.