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The direst possible consequences of the climate emergency for the UK have been mapped by experts, including a searing 4C increase in temperatures to a 6.5-foot increase in sea level. A separate possibility envisions a plunge of 6C in temperature following the failure of critical Atlantic Ocean currents, which would massively disrupt food production and energy needs.

Plausible Events, Not Guarantees

These effects, some of which are linked to climate tipping points, are considered as low probability but possible. The scientists explained that these models plugged a hole in forecasting that had rendered the UK not ready for catastrophic possibilities.

"The severe weather events we have mapped aren’t predictions, but they are possible," said the lead researcher who directed the research. "The nation has been formulating policy without the tools to plan for worst-case scenarios. We've now supplied policymakers what they need to prepare for climate outcomes they hope never happen, but must not overlook."

A Suite of Harsh Climate Scenarios

A second set of severe models details the projected severity of harsh climate between now and the close of the 2100s. These suggest that thermometer readings could skyrocket in particular seasons by up to 6C above average, while rainfall could be 300% of standard measurements.

The chance of the worst-case outcomes occurring could not be calculated due to unknown factors about what measures will be implemented to tackle global warming and how the climate system will respond. This approach was compared to national security risk assessments or resilience checks for the banking sector.

Key Outcome Elements

• 4C Temperature Rise: Planetary heating rising well above 4C by 2100 could happen if emissions cuts collapses or if vicious cycles like the Amazon rainforest dying emit its vast reserves of carbon. This would lead to severe and lengthy heatwaves and droughts plaguing the UK in summer.
• Atlantic Current Collapse: A critical sea current, the AMOC, is slowing down and showing signs of collapse due to ocean warming. A collapse beginning in 2030 would lead to a 6C cooling in the UK. "Agriculture would struggle enormously and water supplies would be drastically changed," noted the professor.
• Rapid Sea Level Rise: A rise of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could take place if polar ice in the Arctic and Antarctic melt abruptly, flooding low-lying areas. In contrast to the other scenarios, this risk is already understood by infrastructure experts.
• Aerosol Effect: Global averages could also be pushed higher by about 0.75C if industrial aerosols is sharply cut. This unexpected result occurs because pollution particles from industrial activity block solar radiation from reaching the ground.

Planning for the Worst

These dire projections could be used to inform the building of critical national infrastructure, such as expanded cities, nuclear power stations and water management networks. Knowledge about these future hazards could also speed the drive to slash carbon pollution.

The research formulated the severe projections using a mix of real-world events, climate models and scientific theory. The possibilities do not take into account international cascading effects including the global food shortages and resource wars.

The project was requested as part of a official adaptation planning initiative. Earlier reports have cautioned that insufficient focus was being paid to catastrophic yet improbable risks.

The government's climate advisors has stated that the UK must "become resilient to moderate heating" and evaluate the risks for four degrees. Previous adaptation plans have been described as being "inadequate" by some observers.

An official statement commented: "Climate change is at the heart of this government’s agenda, both building resilience and transitioning to a renewable energy leader. It is vital that the UK is resilient for the consequences."