🔗 Share this article

Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty following the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “run” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, one thing is clear – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but this past Saturday morning saw its first major military attack on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Trump proclaimed.

The decision to unilaterally attack another state and abduct its leader – mere days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. This ought to concern everyone.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has remarked that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and brushed aside rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other parts of the leadership-stricken government are considerably more radical.

A Shift in Global Role

A man who won power pledging to stop foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He does not see the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is converting it into a lawless actor.

He holds the view that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that Venezuelan oil means this most recent venture “will pay for itself”.

A Move Devoid of International Legitimacy

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them.

Put aside the signal this transmits to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will likely encourage further adventurism.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

No one buys the excuse that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as a desire to project strength, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as his standing with the American public falters.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode emphasizes the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to redirect his gaze inward – but soaring healthcare premiums, economic unhappiness and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.

Barely 12 months into his four-year term. The international community may live to repent if they stay silent now, with the question of which nation is next looming.